A Q&A on the shuttle's future

Rumors are swirling. Politicians are making promises. Program officials are studying how to retire the shuttle and how to extend its life, at the same time. All the while, thousands of jobs are at stake as the debate builds over whether or not to retire the fleet in 2010 as planned.

So with all of that going on, there are lots of questions about the status of the space shuttle program and the options after the election. Here are some answers to more frequently asked questions.

Question: What is NASA policy?

Answer: President Bush directed NASA to retire the space shuttles in 2010, after completion of the International Space Station. He also directed NASA to field new rockets and spaceships no later than 2015 to carry astronauts to the space station, moon and Mars. From 2010 to 2015, however, the United States will have no ship to fly humans into space. The plan is to buy seats on Russia's Soyuz until a U.S. ship is ready.

Question: That's the plan approved by the White House, Congress and NASA since 2004. So why is it being questioned now?

Answer: As 2010 gets nearer, reality sets in. NASA estimates up to 10,000 workers could lose jobs after 2010. That includes as many as 6,400 -- in worst-case estimates -- at Kennedy Space Center. Politicians in big, politically-powerful states like Florida, Alabama, Texas and California are raising a ruckus about huge job-loss predictions in an election year. What's more, some in Washington worry about the U.S. not having a ship to carry astronauts to a $100 billion space station bankrolled mostly by the American taxpayers. Fears about use of the station have grown as relations worsen with Russia. A growing number of Republicans and Democrats say the five-year gap in flights must be shortened.

NASA Administrator Mike Griffin, in a meeting with employees Friday, said, "It can't be lost on anyone that, in the wake of the invasion of Georgia, as well as being confronted face-to-face with the knowledge that, yes, we really are winding the space shuttle program down, that many in our space community and in our oversight committees in Congress are having second thoughts. That's just a fact. We live in a democracy; I don't think we want to change that one. So people are going to have second thoughts and third thoughts and fourth thoughts."
Question: What do McCain and Obama say?

Answer: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain say they support adding $2 billion a year to NASA's budget to shrink the gap. Both support adding one more mission to fly a science instrument built for the space station. McCain supports the existing moon-Mars plan, but recently asked President Bush to take no action to prevent the next president from extending the shuttle program. Obama plans a review of NASA priorities, but specifically said he will keep the goal of returning astronauts to the moon by 2020. McCain and Obama both visited Brevard to talk space issues with residents and industry leaders.

Question: What will it cost to keep flying the shuttle?

Answer: NASA spends $3.2 billion a year operating the fleet. Most covers fixed costs such as salaries, facility maintenance and so on. Program officials have long said the cost is roughly same whether you fly twice or five times a year. However, NASA is now studying whether it could fly fewer missions a year and keep the program going until a replacement is ready. There could be savings in a scaled-back shuttle program using fewer orbiters, although it might be harder to operate. However, Griffin still estimates it will cost about $3 billion a year to keep the fleet flying.

Question: Doesn't NASA need the shuttle program money to pay for the moon program?

Answer: Yes. The shuttle program's budget would shift after 2010 to pay for development of Ares rockets, Orion spacecraft and support equipment for the new program. So flying shuttle longer with no new funds would delay NASA's development of the shuttle replacement vehicle. That just pushes the gap back. Eliminating or shortening the gap requires billions more dollars.

Question: Would flying the shuttle longer help the station program?

Answer: Yes. The shuttle was designed to build and support a space station. There's no spacecraft more fit for the task. A shuttle orbiter can carry not only crew, but many times more cargo than automated space tugs available from the Russians and Europeans. Shuttles also could deliver large replacement parts, possibly helping extend the station's life beyond 2017.

Question: How many jobs would be saved if the shuttle is extended?

Answer: Impossible to say. The answer depends on how many of the three orbiters are flying, whether NASA finds some way to close one of the three shuttle hangars, how fast Ares and Orion are delivered, and myriad other questions not yet settled. However, even a scaled-back shuttle program past 2010 will mean far less job loss than the current estimates, which ranged from 3,000 to 6,400 in varying NASA estimates.

Question: Is the shuttle safe enough to keep flying?

Answer: That depends on who you ask. Some say no. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board said NASA should replace the shuttle soon. If flown past 2010, the investigators argued NASA must re-certify the vehicles just as the military does with aging aircraft. The independent Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel says it's not a good idea to fly the past 2010 because the orbiters are old, there might not be enough workers long-term, and supply lines are dangerously tight, among other factors. Former shuttle program manager Wayne Hale notes safety upgrades were ditched in part because the ships were nearing retirement. He doesn's think NASA should reverse course. On the other hand, others argue the shuttles are the most extensively checked out aircraft flown anywhere and NASA is evaluating whether current maintenance schedules and overhaul work after every eight or so missions accomplishes the same goals as a re-certification.

Question: Could flying the shuttle longer lead to another accident?

Answer: Griffin notes that the statistical probability of a shuttle accident is 1 in 80. If the agency flies two missions per year between 2010 and 2015, the extra 10 missions increase the risk of a catastrophe over the life of the program from 1 in 12 to 1 in 8.

Question: Are the supply lines shut down? Will there be enough parts to fly more missions?

Answer: NASA shuttle program manager John Shannon says the agency has been "very careful" with supply lines, maintaining vendors and parts availability through 2010. He sees no show-stopping issues with supply lines. One example: external tanks. NASA plans to construct just enough tanks for the final 10 missions and one backup. Shannon says welding work on the top of the last tank is set for December. NASA won't destroy equipment or use the space for anything else until decisions are made about shuttle retirement. The bottom line: NASA will have everything it needs in place to keep building tanks if needed.

IMAGE NOTE: The image above shows shuttle Endeavour being lifted off its transporter vehicle after rollover from the Orbiter Processing Facility earlier this week. Endeavour is the rescue vehicle for the Atlantis mission to Hubble. Click the picture to see a much larger version. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett.