See for yourself if Ares, Orion seem on track

Everyone seems to be talking these days about whether or not Ares 1 and Orion remain on schedule and on budget.

NASA seems to have clearly answered the budget question, acknowledging last week that project costs through the first human flight have risen from $28 billion to $36 billion (plus another $8 billion in related support costs for a total of $44 billion). Read all about in our story from late last week.

The schedule question seems to be harder to answer, but take a look at the official planning schedules for NASA's human space flight programs and you start to see what is and is not moving on the calendar when it comes to Ares and Orion missions.

Linked below are what's called the Multi-Program Integrated Milestones, or space agency lingo for a planning schedule. We've posted the version from two years ago and the most recent publicly-released version. Some are reporting that a new update is coming soon, with the possibility of the first human Ares flight being delayed.

For now, however, that flight (known as Orion 2) remains scheduled for March 2015. What the schedule documents show, however, is that many of the precursor flights are moving later on the calendar. Some are moving many months or even a year. It remains unclear how changes in the schedules for those flights, which presumably would rely on the same hardware, personnel and ground equipment, would not impact Orion 2.

That said, here are the 2007 and 2009 schedules in PDF form so you can take a look for yourself. If you click read more after that, you can see a quick list on the date changes for all Ares test flights leading to the first human flight.

Click here for scheduled from spring 2007
Click here for scheduled from spring 2009

Ares 1-X test flight was scheduled for 2nd quarter of 2009 and has since been delayed to the 3rd quarter.
AA-1 Transonic test flight was scheduled for 3rd quarter of 2009 and has since been delayed one year to the 3rd quarter of 2010.
Pad Abort 2 test was scheduled for 2nd quarter of 2010 and has since been rescheduled for 4th quarter of 2012, more than two years later.
Ares 1-Y test flight was scheduled for mid-2012 and is now scheduled for mid to late 2013.
AA-2 max-q test flight was scheduled for 3rd quarter of 2010 and is now set for 4th quarter of 2011.

Some tests and test flights have been eliminated from the schedule altogether or re-ordered and re-configured in a fashion that makes comparisons difficult.

NASA officials stressed they are trying to maintain the schedule and reviewing funding levels. In these documents and in public statements before Congress, NASA officials have said they have a 65 percent confidence level in the 2015 first launch date. The GAO has questioned that schedule as overly optimistic in several reports and in its testimony to Congress.

IMAGE NOTE: The image above shows a test-firing of an Ares igniter by contractor ATK Launch Systems. The March 10 test was a success. Photo courtesy of nasa.gov.